![\"june19-1\"](\"http:\/\/adjustedreality.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/june19-1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nBecause it’s been fun in the past, let’s math this one up a bit, just for fun, shall we?<\/p>\n
My best times at Lake Pflugerville Triathlon:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Swim (2014): 11:33<\/li>\n
- Bike (2013): 46:27<\/li>\n
- Run (2012): 27:08<\/li>\n
- Overall (2014) 1:32:09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
My multipliers from Rookie:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Swim: 5.8%<\/li>\n
- Bike: 6.25%<\/li>\n
- Run: 9%<\/li>\n
- Overall: 7.6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
This means I can reasonably expect:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Swim: 10:50 (swim has a run in and out so this is not all paddle time)<\/li>\n
- Bike: 43:45<\/li>\n
- Run: 24:45<\/li>\n
- With the 2:15 and 1:30 transitions I did last year, this works out to 1:23 and small change overall.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
…well then.\u00a0 That would be a 9 minute PR.\u00a0 I will try to open my mind to the fact that this is POSSIBLE, but WOW.<\/p>\n
Let’s just try this again from my best result overall, last year.<\/p>\n
- \n
- Swim: 10:50<\/li>\n
- Bike: 45:10<\/li>\n
- Run: 26:20<\/li>\n
- Overall: with same transitions as above… 1:26 and small change<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
…a little more believable, but still wow.\u00a0 That would be a 6 minute PR.\u00a0 Considering the last 3 years I’ve finished within 45 seconds of each time, that’s still a huge change.<\/p>\n
I’m going to have to lean on a little bit of unicorn and rainbow magic here.\u00a0 The forecast is obviously a little far out, but it’s not kind (low 75, high 90, and INSANELY humid), and that works against me like WOAH.<\/p>\n
Swim:<\/strong><\/p>\n
The lake’s condition will definitely influence this, but if I was able to pull 30 seconds off a 300m swim, I can probably do better than that unless the lake is SUPAH CHOPPY.\u00a0 I just need to keep the effort ON, which I’ve gotten much better at this year.\u00a0 I’ll be trying for a watch pace of around 1:42\/100y (around 1:50\/100m, but my OWS settings only display in yards).\u00a0 And hey, I’ll finally get a chance to see if the race course here is long like I suspect!<\/p>\n
T1:<\/strong><\/p>\n
Same deal as all the other races.\u00a0 Every second here is another second I have to take off on that run.\u00a0 Run as fast as I can to transition.\u00a0 Sock, shoe, sock, shoe, helmet, sunglasses and go.<\/p>\n
Bike:<\/strong><\/p>\n
This will be interesting.\u00a0 I ride here a lot, but I rarely get the chance to fly down the blocked off roads without worrying about traffic or keeping Zliten\/friends in my sights.\u00a0 Here I get to just RIDE.\u00a0 18-19.something mph sounds crazypants to me, but I did just ride this under the above conditions not giving anything close to 100% at 17.4 mph, so I guess it’s reasonable.\u00a0 Again, just hard to open my mind to the fact that 19 mph is a pace I can keep outdoor riding since that’s new.<\/p>\n
If I can feel the same riding as I did at Cap Tex, I’ll be thrilled.\u00a0 Riding aggressive without being aggressive, consistently keeping a comfortably high cadence, pushing up hills and recovering on the downs once I’m back up to speed, staying honest and working to gain speed on the flats, and just rock my home course advantage.<\/p>\n
Just a note to myself: sub-42 is over 20 mph.\u00a0 I’ll go on the record right now that if I can ride that speed, I almost don’t care what my run is like (within reason).\u00a0 And also, if I’m close, I may just go for it.<\/p>\n
T2:<\/strong><\/p>\n
The run starts as soon as my feet touch the ground on the bike.\u00a0 I’m not using bike gloves this time, so I won’t fumble with them.\u00a0 I’m debaaaaaaating using a throwaway frozen handheld bottle, but I need to decide whether the extra happy of having a frozen bottle will outweigh the “i have to carry a bottle” annoyance.\u00a0 The temps will decide.\u00a0 Shoe off, shoe on, shoe off, shoe on, step into race belt, grab visor (and maybe handheld) and GTFO.<\/p>\n
Run:<\/strong><\/p>\n
I predict my run will be in feels like mid-to-upper 80s. A little better than two weekends ago starting my run around 11am in the feels like upper-80s to mid-90s, but I was only able to muster 10 minute miles going probably only one gear under race effort.\u00a0 The run is a little short at something like 2.85 or 2.9 miles typically on my garmin, which makes these silly run times possible.\u00a0 On a cool day.\u00a0 Not on gravel.\u00a0 Not off a hard bike.\u00a0 With a healthy dose of pixie dust.<\/p>\n
I need to channel my inner badass here and just FUCKING RUN MY ASS OFF.\u00a0 Remembering that this is the last 3 miles of season.\u00a0 For the next 5 weeks, I can run 13 minute miles on the treadmill inside in the AC if I feel like it.\u00a0 These three need to be aiming somewhere around the low 9s\/upper 8s if I can summon the sheer amount of will, guts, gumption, suck it up buttercup, caffeine, sugar, and unicorn dust to do so.<\/p>\n
I’ve spent a lot of time running on kitty litter and while it hasn’t stopped sucking, I’m probably more used to it.\u00a0 Dreaming about dunking myself back in the lake helped me on previous runs.\u00a0 That and freezy pops may singlehandedly get me to the finish line.<\/p>\n
No matter how things go, I’m looking forward to one more go-crazy-as-hard-as-I-can race before it’s time to change things up a bit.\u00a0 Let’s go with… 1:23 is my A+ goal, 1:25 is my A, sub 1:30 is my B, and a PR is also perfectly acceptable to me if the day does not go as planned.<\/p>\n